SALLY CLARK and SADDAM HUSSEIN, 500 words on the dangers of hypothetical reasoning.
Brian Corbett
62 Radyr Avenue, Swansea, SA3 5DT
SALLY CLARK and SADDAM HUSSEIN
Last week we learnt an appeal court had quashed Sally Clark’s life sentence. That conviction was based largely on the huge improbability of two such infant deaths occurring by co-incidence of chance. But we now know it wasn’t merely chance, that part of the evidence was hidden. We could all sympathise with the human scale of an error so clearly etched on the face of the victim, and be thankful that at least we no longer have a death penalty.
At the time of the conviction it was reminiscent to me of the stratospheric pseudo scientific improbabilities cited by the authorities for the safety of nuclear power. They were issued at the time that undeclared accidents being hidden, at Windscale. With hindsight of the disasters at Three Mile Island and Chernobyl who would dare spin such figures now.
Yet the case against Iraq is also being spun on a hypothetical basis. Without a regime change Donald Rumsfeld tells us thousands, or tens of thousands, or hundreds of thousands, or maybe millions (of westerners) will die when their chemical and biological weapons get into the hands of terrorists. Precious little hard evidence of possession or development of weapons is presented. (Note too how the nuclear threat and ‘smoking gun’ have so suddenly have disappeared from our pages). There is however the knowledge that the US once supplied anthrax to its then ally. No evidence yet of a link between the secular state of Iraq and fundamentalist Muslims. But, worryingly for those who respect the truth, it’s becoming an imperative to find one, and there’s the plausibility that we can force them to act simultaneously, and so gain apparent justification after the event. No attempt is made to balance the argument by the certainty of casualties (mostly Iraqi) in a war, the possibility that it will escalate far outside Iraq’s borders, or by the probability that such a course will harden the resentment felt by the have-nots of this world, underline the case for pursuing political aims by violence, and fuel terrorism against the west for another generation.
An unstoppable inertia is gathering behind the massive preparations for an early pre-emptive war. The loss of face alone in pulling back and handing a propaganda scoop of our own making to Saddam Hussein is becoming enormous, the stock market flounders whilst this uncertainty exists and the real economy may not be too far behind, the military are on alert. It’s time for our government to reason and choose. I am against President Bush.
BRIAN CORBETT 31 January 2003
Brian, thanks, but I'm afraid this doesn't really make it for T2. I feel
trying to combine two such diverse subjects simply doesn't work as a piece.
regards
Alan Editor of T2 (Times 2)
Last of many pieces discussed with him
Personal Notes
As an electronic engineering graduate of Imperial College and Fellow of the Institution of Electrical Engineers, I was author of several international conference papers in computer control of industrial processes. Now I am a young OAP who writes. My other current interests include independent travel in Europe and Asia (with my wife and a rucksack), languages (both European and Asian), politics (as an observer), tech stocks, ball sports, ‘modern’ jazz, and photography.Brian Corbett
62 Radyr Avenue, Swansea, SA3 5DT
SALLY CLARK and SADDAM HUSSEIN
Last week we learnt an appeal court had quashed Sally Clark’s life sentence. That conviction was based largely on the huge improbability of two such infant deaths occurring by co-incidence of chance. But we now know it wasn’t merely chance, that part of the evidence was hidden. We could all sympathise with the human scale of an error so clearly etched on the face of the victim, and be thankful that at least we no longer have a death penalty.
At the time of the conviction it was reminiscent to me of the stratospheric pseudo scientific improbabilities cited by the authorities for the safety of nuclear power. They were issued at the time that undeclared accidents being hidden, at Windscale. With hindsight of the disasters at Three Mile Island and Chernobyl who would dare spin such figures now.
Yet the case against Iraq is also being spun on a hypothetical basis. Without a regime change Donald Rumsfeld tells us thousands, or tens of thousands, or hundreds of thousands, or maybe millions (of westerners) will die when their chemical and biological weapons get into the hands of terrorists. Precious little hard evidence of possession or development of weapons is presented. (Note too how the nuclear threat and ‘smoking gun’ have so suddenly have disappeared from our pages). There is however the knowledge that the US once supplied anthrax to its then ally. No evidence yet of a link between the secular state of Iraq and fundamentalist Muslims. But, worryingly for those who respect the truth, it’s becoming an imperative to find one, and there’s the plausibility that we can force them to act simultaneously, and so gain apparent justification after the event. No attempt is made to balance the argument by the certainty of casualties (mostly Iraqi) in a war, the possibility that it will escalate far outside Iraq’s borders, or by the probability that such a course will harden the resentment felt by the have-nots of this world, underline the case for pursuing political aims by violence, and fuel terrorism against the west for another generation.
An unstoppable inertia is gathering behind the massive preparations for an early pre-emptive war. The loss of face alone in pulling back and handing a propaganda scoop of our own making to Saddam Hussein is becoming enormous, the stock market flounders whilst this uncertainty exists and the real economy may not be too far behind, the military are on alert. It’s time for our government to reason and choose. I am against President Bush.
BRIAN CORBETT 31 January 2003
Brian, thanks, but I'm afraid this doesn't really make it for T2. I feel
trying to combine two such diverse subjects simply doesn't work as a piece.
regards
Alan Editor of T2 (Times 2)
Last of many pieces discussed with him
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