Wednesday, 19 February 2003

IRAQ, ENDS and MEANS last version

‘IRAQ, ENDS AND MEANS’ v19.0, 1300 words Black, serious, humour used to study ‘the ends’, with Christian, political and sporting images. Written by an ordinary citizen concerned about the justification for war and the public loss of trust in the political process.

Interested? Give a prompt response please?

Personal Notes

Pioneer in the development of computer systems for process control in the steel industry. Electronic engineering graduate of Imperial College and Fellow of the Institution of Electrical Engineers, I was author of several international conference papers. Now I am a young OAP who writes. My other current interests include independent travel in Europe and Asia (with my wife and a rucksack), languages (both European and Asian), politics (as an observer), tech stocks, ball sports, ‘modern’ jazz, and photography.


Brian Corbett
62 Radyr Avenue, Swansea, SA3 5DT
01792 424702



IRAQ, ENDS AND MEANS


So now we have it ‘the ends’ (plural) justify the ‘means’. But worryingly it’s the ‘means’, deposing Saddam Hussein by force, which stays constant, and ‘the end’ which drifts and drifts.


In the beginning ‘the end’ was simply to disarm Iraq. ‘Funny, I didn’t expect the wrong’un, out of the back of your hand, first ball’. Having noted that no evidence exists of a link between Saddam Hussein and al-Qaida at September 11, people asked themselves, ‘Would America have sought the UN resolution against Iraq but for September 11’?


None of the terrorists were Iraqi, many countries have weapons of mass destruction and many have bad human rights records. ‘So why did Iraq pose such a threat that it had to be singled out?’ Oil? Unfinished business? Empire? Confronting Saddam Hussein by forcing through UN Resolution 1441, threatening war if he did not disarm, was never a rational response to the diffuse threat from al-Qaida.


Of course there was the argument that their weapons of mass destruction could get into the hands of terrorists with terrible consequences for the west. That remains a real concern, but, given the extent to which the west and Russia have proliferated weapons, that risk of leakage is worldwide. Yet al-Qaida had demonstrated on September 11 that they had no need of weapons of war. They could destroy by turning our own power on ourselves, on that occasion by using our newly refuelled aircraft as bombs. Linking destruction and symbolism made a powerful statement, which shook the western world. ‘But that message didn’t come from Saddam.’


Saddam Hussein’s greatest crime was to make a pre-emptive strike in 1980 against Ayatollah Khomeini and his new Islamic Republic of Iran. (That popular Islamic revolution in 1979 had overthrown, from within, a Shah who had held power for decades through a secret police force.) Saddam expected to win the war easily but it lasted eight years and left over a million dead. Britain, France, America and Russia all sold arms into that conflict, some to both sides. Was America the source of his biological and chemical weapons? (Check out the entry for 30 Dec 2002 on www.jonathanpollard.org). At that time Saddam was viewed as the acceptable secular face of Arab leadership, not yet an ogre - more one of us, even though he regularly used gas when faced with defeat by Iran. His big political mistake was to go on to attack Kuwait and expect the west to turn a blind eye. ‘Saddam is a very nasty tyrant, but not so far a terrorist.’


‘Why do we never seek to understand terrorist motives?’ If we did the explication of suicide bombing might be found to depend more on the anger of the dispossessed and their sympathisers, than the vehicle of fundamental Islam. If fundamentalist Islam is the key then al-Qaida is certainly opposed to Saddam’s secular Iraq. Either way there is no common cause, just a common enemy. Let’s out-think the terrorists for once. The evils of war will simply play into their hands.


Next ball the straight honest flipper, as ‘the end’ became simply to depose Saddam Hussein. Iraq would never be safe whilst it remained in his hands. We, the public, had always felt that this was the intention of President Bush. It was all too clear to us that, in his eyes, 1441 was but a device to provide for invasion. Even Colin Powell, one of the few restrained American political voices in the immediate aftermath of September 11, was prepared to draw unsafe conclusions in order to further his case. He was reigned-in by the level head of Hans Blix. Nevertheless it came as a shock to hear presidential Blair admit that, ‘ridding the world of Saddam would be an act of humanity’. The means of delivering this humanity - is war.


Now I detect the next level of spin designed to recapture the moral high ground for New Labour. ‘Mike Gatting knows there’s little defence to that awesome leg break’. ‘The third end’ will be to liberate Iraq, to turn it into a liberal democracy. (But who really believes that America, having deposed Saddam, will be prepared to allow a free choice of government?) Surely we can all agree to that noble end. The ‘means’, unfortunately, is still war.


‘Strap on your helmet and be prepared for the storm troops after the tea interval, watch out for the beamer straight at the head’, even the yanks should appreciate that sort of pitching. Play up, and play the game. The authority of the United Nations is at stake if you don’t fall in with the world’s only superpower. ‘You know there is no alternative’ – to war.’


Confused, by this bodyline bowling? You should be, the real war starts tomorrow, this session is just for the hearts and minds of you and me. ‘War isn’t very good at that.’


After the battle for Iraq has been won, look out for ‘the end’ to move again. Iran is the second arm of the axis of evil, and more obviously aligned with the perceived motivation of al-Qaida, so it too will have to be controlled. We can’t afford to risk their Islamic democracy infecting free Iraq. That would even threaten our ally Saudi Arabia. ‘Is that why we went to the defence of Saddam in the ‘80’s?’


President Khatami of the Islamic Republic of Iran got 69% of the vote in a turnout of 80% when first elected in 1997 by men and women. He was perceived as a moderate cleric and reformer who would gradually increase power of parliament vis a vis the church. ‘You know, move away from faith schools and that sort of thing!’


‘One final shift in ‘the end’?’ Using this secure base to set up a protectorate of whatever remains of Lesser Palestine. Now at last we have it, ‘the end’ was to control a Middle East reformed in our image. Game, set and match – revenge, the world’s oil supply controlled, the Wholly American Empire established. But in these days of weapons of mass destruction ask - ‘Is war is a solution?’ Isn’t it far more likely to result in another generation of terrifying terrorism and instability? Is there no way to facilitate reform of an oil rich country from within?


Unfortunately truth is the loser in this drift defence of war on Iraq. Few take political statements at face value any longer. Our elected representatives are playing the power game and we all know the dangers of absolute power. Curious, we are suddenly becoming the defender of the rights of Kurds and Marsh Arabs. The higher the stakes the greater our suspicions, and they don’t get much higher than war.


It’s taken me a lifetime to drift down from the initial euphoria of John Kennedy’s election, viewed from Toronto, to these cynical views. Too many of the young, one of my own children included, feel instinctively that the choices offered by democracy are illusory and don’t bother to vote. Western democracy is in danger in its own heartland. ‘Vive la France.’ Don’t (you) let me d.ow.n


BRIAN CORBETT                        19 February 2003 v19.1


Last attempt with Observer, had longish talk to Mike Holland who said the writing was good enough, keep trying but this was the end of the road for me.

Monday, 17 February 2003

IRAQ, ENDS and MEANS 17 Feb 2003

‘IRAQ, ENDS AND MEANS’ v17.2, 1200 words A wide ranging study of the ends by a citizen concerned about the war and the public loss of trust in the political process.

Interested? Give a prompt response please?

Personal Notes

Pioneer in the development of computer systems for process control in the steel industry. Electronic engineering graduate of Imperial College and Fellow of the Institution of Electrical Engineers, I was author of several international conference papers. Now I am a young OAP who writes. My other current interests include independent travel in Europe and Asia (with my wife and a rucksack), languages (both European and Asian), politics (as an observer), tech stocks, ball sports, ‘modern’ jazz, and photography.


Brian Corbett
62 Radyr Avenue, Swansea, SA3 5DT
01792 424702

 
IRAQ, ENDS AND MEANS


So now we have it ‘the ends’ (plural) justify the ‘means’. But worryingly it’s the ‘means’, deposing Saddam Hussein by force, which stays constant, and ‘the end’ which drifts and drifts.


In the beginning ‘the end’ was simply to disarm Iraq. ‘Funny, I didn’t expect the ‘wrong un’ first ball’. Having noted that no evidence existed of a link between Saddam Hussein and al-Qaeda at September 11, people asked themselves, ‘Would America have sought the UN resolution against Iraq but for September 11’?


None of the terrorists were Iraqi, many countries have weapons of mass destruction and many have bad human rights records. So why did Iraq pose such a threat that it had to be singled out? Oil? Unfinished business? Empire? Confronting Saddam Hussein by forcing through UN Resolution 1441, threatening war if he did not disarm, was never a rational response to the diffuse threat from al-Qaeda.


Of course there was the argument that their weapons of mass destruction could get into the hands of terrorists with terrible consequences for the west. That remains a real concern, but, given the extent to which the west and Russia have proliferated weapons, that risk of leakage is worldwide. Yet al-Qaeda had demonstrated on September 11 that they had no need of weapons of war, they could destroy by turning our own power on ourselves, on that occasion by using our newly refuelled aircraft as bombs. Linking destruction and symbolism in this way made a powerful statement, which shook the western world. But that message didn’t come from Saddam.


Saddam Hussein’s greatest crime was to make a pre-emptive strike in 1980 against Ayatollah Khomeini and his new Islamic Republic of Iran. (That popular Islamic revolution in 1979 had overthrown, from within, a Shah who had held power for decades through a secret police force.) Saddam expected to win easily but the war lasted eight years and left over a million dead. At that time he was viewed as the acceptable secular face of Arab leadership. Britain, France, America and Russia all sold arms into that conflict, some to both sides. Was America the source of his biological and chemical weapons? (Check out the entry for 30 Dec 2002 on www.jonathanpollard.org). Saddam Hussein wasn’t such an ogre in the 1980’s, more one of us, even though he regularly used gas when faced with defeat by Iran. His big political mistake was to go on to attack Kuwait and expect the west to turn a blind eye.


‘Why do we never seek to understand terrorist motives?’ If we did the explication of suicide bombing might be found to depend more on the anger of the dispossessed and their sympathisers, than the vehicle of fundamental Islam. If fundamentalist Islam is the key then al-Qaeda is certainly opposed to Saddam’s secular Iraq. Either way there is no common cause, just a common enemy. Let’s out-think the terrorists for once. The evils of war will simply play into their hands.


Next the straight honest flipper, as ‘the end’ became simply to depose Saddam Hussein. Iraq would never be safe whilst it remained in his hands. We, the public, had always felt that this was the intention of President Bush. It was all too clear to us that, in his eyes, 1441 was but a device to provide for invasion. Even Colin Powell, one of the few restrained American political voices in the immediate aftermath of September 11, was prepared to draw unwarranted conclusions in order to further his case. He was reigned-in by the level head of Hans Blix. Nevertheless it came as a shock to hear presidential Blair admit that, ‘ridding the world of Saddam would be an act of humanity’. The means of delivering this humanity is war.


Now I detect the next level of spin designed to recapture the moral high ground for New Labour. ‘Mike Gatting knows there’s little defence to that awesome leg break’. ‘The third end’ will be to liberate Iraq, to turn it into a liberal democracy. But who really believes that America, having deposed Saddam, will be prepared to allow a free choice of government? ‘Surely the British Left can join the Right of Europe and America and agree to that noble end.’ The ‘means’ unfortunately is still war.


‘Strap on your helmet and be prepared for the storm troops after the tea interval, and watch out for the beamer straight at the head’, even the yanks should appreciate that sort of pitching. Confused, by another bowling change? You should be, this opening session is just for the hearts and minds of you and me, war isn’t very good at that.


After the battle for Iraq look out for ‘the end’ to move again. Iran is the second arm of the axis of evil, and more obviously aligned with the perceived motivation of al-Qaeda, so it too has to be controlled. We can’t afford to risk their Islamic democracy infecting free Iraq. That would even threaten our ally Saudi Arabia.

President Khatami of Iran got 69% of the vote in a turnout of 80% when first elected in 1997 by men and women. He was perceived as a moderate cleric, who would gradually increase the separation between parliament and church. You know, move away from faith schools and that sort of thing


‘One final shift in ‘the end’?’ Using this secure base to set up a protectorate of whatever remains of Lesser Palestine. Now at last we have it, ‘the end’ is to control a Middle East reformed in our image. A full house – business completed, oil secured, and empire established. But as for stability in the region, ask if war is a solution. Isn’t it far more likely to result in decades of terrorism and unrest?  


Unfortunately truth is the loser in this drift defence of war on Iraq. Few take political statements at face value any longer. Our elected representatives are playing the power game and we all know the dangers of absolute power. The higher the stakes the greater our suspicions, and they don’t get much higher than this.

It’s taken me a lifetime to drift down from the initial euphoria of John Kennedy’s election, viewed from Toronto, to these cynical views. Too many of the young, one of my own children included, feel instinctively that the choices offered by democracy are illusory and don’t bother to vote. Western democracy is in danger in its own heartland. ‘Vive la France.’


BRIAN CORBETT                        17 February 2003 v17.2





Brian,

Again it is a comment piece I'm afraid. We have one established columnist everyday, and that's sort of the only comment we take here on G2. So yes, I'm afraid you're going to have to do battle with the comment guys. Sorry to disappoint

Sam Wollaston    sam.wollaston@guardian.co.uk 


I thought the cricket imagery might appeal to Stephen Moss, comment section

Thursday, 13 February 2003

GIVE PEACE A CHANCE (Iraq)

GIVE PEACE A CHANCE, 1400 words, shorter more focussed version with no preamble on Sally Clark. It examines this proposed war on the basis of pragmatism, justice and historical perspective. Fully up to date to take account of the developments, by France, Germany, Belgium and Russia, and plots a path for peace. Would be prepared to update rapidly after Hans Blix’s statement tomorrow. Interested? Give a prompt response please?


Personal Notes

Pioneer in the development of computer systems for industrial process control. Electronic engineering graduate of Imperial College and Fellow of the Institution of Electrical Engineers, I was author of several international conference papers. Now I am a young OAP who writes. My other current interests include independent travel in Europe and Asia (with my wife and a rucksack), languages (both European and Asian), politics (as an observer), tech stocks, ball sports, ‘modern’ jazz, and photography.


Brian Corbett
62 Radyr Avenue, Swansea, SA3 5DT
01792 424702  



GIVE PEACE A CHANCE

How often have we seen the pressure on the prosecution to win lead through use of suspect evidence to a miscarriage of justice? When the military is involved the consequences of a misjudgement are no longer on a scale to which we can relate. Justification for a pre-emptive strike is particularly difficult, for by definition it is based on hypotheses of what might or might not occur. As Donald Rumsfeld said recently, ‘there are risks in acting and risks in not acting’. In such reasoning the assumptions made are all important.


Ask yourself, ‘Would America have sought the UN resolution against Iraq but for September 11’? It’s accepted that no evidence exists of a link between Saddam Hussein and al-Qaida at September 11. The majority of those terrorists were Saudi, non were Iraqi. Iraq had been contained by sanctions for a decade. Many countries have weapons of mass destruction and many have bad human rights records. So why did Iraq pose such a threat that it had to be singled out? Oil? Unfinished business? Confronting Saddam Hussein by forcing through a UN resolution threatening war if he did not disarm, or abdicate, was never a rational response to the diffuse threat from al-Qaida.


What attempt was made to balance the argument by the certainty of casualties (predominantly Iraqi civilians) in a war, the possibility that it will escalate into internal chaos or reverberate far outside Iraq’s borders, the probability that such a course will harden the resentment felt by the have-nots of this world and fuel terrorism against the west for another generation. Whatever else, war will underline the case for pursuing political aims by violence.
 
Saddam Hussein’s greatest crime was to make a pre-emptive strike against Ayatollah Khomeini and his new Islamic Republic of Iran. He expected to win easily but the war lasted eight years and left over a million dead. At that time he was viewed as the acceptable face of Arab leadership. Britain, France, America and Russia all sold arms into that conflict. The source of his biological and chemical weapons would seem to be America. (Check out the entry for Dec 30 on www.jonathanpollard.org/2002/). Saddam Hussein wasn’t such an ogre then, more one of us, even though he regularly used gas when faced with defeat. His biggest mistake was to attack Kuwait and expect the west to turn a blind eye.


The vast majority of the world’s proven oil reserves are in the Middle East. Iraq’s reserves are surpassed only by Saudi Arabia’s. America’s economy depends on imported oil. The world economy depends on the availability of oil at a reasonable price, think back to the crash in 1974 when the price suddenly quadrupled.

Last week it seemed that an unstoppable inertia was gathering behind the massive preparations for an early pre-emptive war. The loss of face alone in pulling back and handing a propaganda scoop to Saddam Hussein was becoming enormous. The stock market floundered whilst this uncertainty existed, the oil price rose raising fears of a world recession. The military build up continued. War, it seemed, was all but inevitable if Saddam Hussein remained in charge.


Now it is starting to look different. Russia has joined France and Germany in wishing to see a peaceful resolution of the dispute through inspection and disarmament. A European, like me, would welcome the sign that Russia was willing to throw their hand behind Europe. A cynic, like me, might conclude that it merely shows that this is a big power struggle, dressed up as a UN morality trial. Why should control of the oil go to America? Saddam Hussein might be more willing to disarm given the support of friendlier European states than if faced only by, winner takes all, aggression. He, like Colonel Nasser of Suez before him, might quite genuinely turn from an ogre to a statesman if he sees it is in Iraq’s and his interest. The UN freed from dominance by a single power might be more powerful, not less.


Are France and Germany merely flexing anti-American muscles? Those countries know what it is like to have long and bloody wars fought on their soil. It was a madness that could not be allowed to continue, and so after World War 2 they buried their differences and formed the European Union. The rest of the world needs to get that message, given the increasingly terrible power of modern weapons. I like to believe there are powerful moral forces at work as well as power politics.


‘La Peste’, the allegorical novel that Albert Camus wrote after that same war, pictured evil as a plague, which we all carry. Dr Rieux knows that ‘la seule facon de lutter contre la peste c’est l’honnetete’. Remember the spin during the foot and mouth epidemic. We must play straight. Honesty in this context means acknowledging our current interests in the region, accepting our part of the responsibility for the mess that is the Middle East, from crusades through colonial intrigue to setting up the state of Israel, and to accept our part in building up Saddam Hussein before knocking him down over Kuwait.


Making peace instead of war, sharing instead of exploiting, is a solution that would appeal to me. Is it really a pipe-dream to think of building on the secular state of Iraq, and letting the people of the region prosper from the fortune of having been born on an oil field? The terrorists might be found to depend more on the anger of the dispossessed, than fundamental Islam. We never talk of their motives. If fundamentalist Islam is the key then they are certainly opposed to a secular Iraq. Let’s outflank them for once. War will play into their hands.


Even judged by self-interest alone ask, ‘Is war a solution or will it actually ramp up the terrorist threat’? We are now being told the inspectors can’t hope to find chemical and biological weapons in Iraq because they are so small, mobile and easily hidden. In a war they will simply disappear, like Osama bin Laden did from Afganistan, and be an even greater threat for being dispersed?


Colin Powell’s case for the prosecution, at the UN, was impressive but largely based on the compounding of inferences based on intelligence material. A month ago President Bush was so sure of his intelligence that he expected to present ‘smoking guns’. But intelligence does not have a good record for accuracy, witness the current Radio 4 series on the CIA.


The compounding of suspect evidence and suspect hypothesis led to a faulty verdict for Sally Clark, convicted of killing two of her infant children. That damaged just one family. If the UN verdict is wrong here, or the punishment doesn’t fit the crime, there will be a disastrous miscarriage of justice. War carries the ultimate death penalty, massive destruction, and potentially catastrophic long-lasting repercussions. Let’s give peace a chance.



BRIAN CORBETT                        13 February 2003 v13.0




Mike Holland of the Observer. Sorry mate. Bad news I’m afraid there is no space with the way we are reorganizing the paper to cover Saturday’s Peace March.

Alice Miles of The Times. Thank you for sending this and I apologise for the (my) confusion over
replying. It is a perfectly nice piece but unfortunately I can't see when we
would run it. Our regular columnists write so often about the war that a
piece on that subject by an external contributor has to really stand out
before we would run it. With apologies for being the bearer of bad news, and
thanks for your efforts, Alice Miles

Friday, 7 February 2003

SALLY CLARKE and SADDAM HUSSEIN

SALLY CLARK and SADDAM HUSSEIN. (Feb 7.0) 900 words on the dangers of inferential reasoning and pressure for successful prosecution. Powerful comment by a retired engineer.


Personal Notes

As an electronic engineering graduate of Imperial College and Fellow of the Institution of Electrical Engineers, I was author of several international conference papers on the development of computer control of industrial processes. Now I am a young OAP who writes. My other current interests include independent travel in Europe and Asia (with my wife and a rucksack), languages (both European and Asian), politics (as an observer), tech stocks, ball sports, ‘modern’ jazz, and photography.


Brian Corbett
62 Radyr Avenue, Swansea, SA3 5DT
01792 424702  



SALLY CLARK and SADDAM HUSSEIN   900 words

Last week we learned an appeal court had quashed Sally Clark’s life sentence. That conviction was based largely on the hypothetical improbability of two such cot deaths occurring by co-incidence of chance. But we now know it wasn’t merely chance, but that part of the evidence was not presented (the presence of lethal bacteria in the body), and another part overlooked (contrary to original evidence there was no retinal damage). We could all sympathise with the human scale of an error so clearly etched on the face of the victim, and be thankful that at least we no longer have a death penalty


How often have we seen the pressure on the prosecution to succeed lead through use of suspect evidence to a miscarriage of justice? When the military is involved the consequences of a misjudgement are no longer on a scale to which we can relate. Justification for military intervention is particularly difficult for a pre-emptive strike, which is by definition based on hypotheses of what might or might not occur. As Donald Rumsfeld said, ‘there are risks in acting and risks in not acting’. In such reasoning the assumptions made are all important. In Sally Clark’s case the basic premise of the prosecution was wrong, they were lucky to find some evidence (lethal bacteria) to mount and win the appeal.


At the time of her conviction the logic reminded me of that used to convince the public of the safety of nuclear power, whilst undeclared accidents were occurring, notably at the reprocessing plant of Windscale, now called Sellafield. The hidden imperative was to develop nuclear weapons. In a nuclear power reactor most of the uranium degrades but some transforms to plutonium, the fuel of nuclear weapons, and this is separated out of the spent fuel in reprocessing plants. (Hence today’s concerns about North Korea restarting its nuclear power stations.)  With hindsight of the disasters at Three Mile Island and Chernobyl who would dare spin such safety figures now?


Would America have sought the UN resolution against Iraq but for September 11? Yet no evidence exists of a link between Saddam Hussein and al-Qaida at September 11. The majority of those terrorists were Saudi, non were Iraqi. Iraq had been contained by sanctions for a decade. Many countries have weapons of mass destruction and many have bad human rights records. So why did Iraq pose such a threat that it had to be singled out? Oil? Unfinished business? Confronting Saddam Hussein by forcing through a UN resolution threatening war if he did not disarm, or abdicate, was never a rational response to the diffuse threat from al-Qaida.


What attempt is being made to balance the argument by the certainty of casualties (predominantly Iraqi) in a war, the possibility that it will escalate into internal chaos or reverberate far outside Iraq’s borders, the probability that such a course will harden the resentment felt by the have-nots of this world and fuel terrorism against the west for another generation. Whatever else, war will underline the case for pursuing political aims by violence.


The entry for Dec 30 on the website, jonathanpollard.org/2002/, carries disturbing information about the source of Iraq’s chemical and biological weapons. America was Iraq’s ally at the time of the Iran Iraq war.

The vast majority of the world’s oil reserves are in the Middle East. Iraq’s reserves are the surpassed only by Saudi Arabia’s. America’s economy depends on imported oil. The world economy depends on the availability of oil at a reasonable price, think back to the crash in 1974 when the price suddenly quadrupled.


An unstoppable inertia is gathering behind the massive preparations for an early pre-emptive war. The loss of face alone in pulling back and handing a propaganda scoop to Saddam Hussein is becoming enormous. The stock market flounders whilst this uncertainty exists, the oil price rises so the real economy may not be too far behind. The military build up continues. War, it seems, is all but inevitable if Saddam Hussein remains in charge. But is war a solution or will it actually augment the terrorist threat?


We are now being told the inspectors can’t hope to find chemical and biological weapons in Iraq because they are so small, mobile and easily hidden. So will they simply disappear like Osama bin Laden did from Afganistan and be an even greater threat for being dispersed? Colin Powell’s presentation was impressive but largely based on the compounding of inferences based on intelligence material, rather than hard fact. A month ago President Bush was so sure of his intelligence that he expected to present ‘smoking guns’. But intelligence does not have a good record for accuracy, witness the current Radio 4 series on the CIA.  


The compounding of suspect evidence and suspect hypothesis led to a faulty verdict in the case of Sally Clark. If there is miscarriage of justice here, war will carry out the ultimate death penalty, massive destruction, and unleash potentially catastrophic long-lasting repercussions.



BRIAN CORBETT                        7 February 2003



Sam wollaston, Guardian 18.30 7/2/03 It's nicely done Brian, but not really one for G2. You could try the comment
pages.


Seamas Milne Guardian sent 4 Feb 2003, late rejection from Stephen Moss

Dear Mr Corbett

Many thanks for your piece. I fear it is unlikely we will be able to use it ? we
are swamped by Iraq-related material at the moment, but if we can I will of
course let you know immediately.

Best wishes
Stephen Moss



Sent to  Mike Holland, Comment Editor Observer, obviously tempted and liked juxtaposition of ideas. Too late really, Friday morning, needs to be in by Wednesday for Thurs meeting with columnists. He felt there was unlikely to be space the following week it being the weekend of the Iraq March so I withdrew it and took it unsuccessfully to the Independent.
There had been a slot on the comment pages obviously just given to first and only article by their Readers Editor! 


Tried same day with the Editor of the Independent who was also tempted and dithered but felt it unlikely I could keep up with fast moving events.

I think it was Steve Richards who has an article about Iraq in today's Guardian in a vein related to this article and the last on Iraq, Ends and Means as we await publication of the Chilcot Enquiry. (comment added 5 July 2016)

Friday, 31 January 2003

SALLY CLARKE and SADDAM HUSSEIN initial v for T2

SALLY CLARK and SADDAM HUSSEIN, 500 words on the dangers of hypothetical reasoning.

Personal Notes

As an electronic engineering graduate of Imperial College and Fellow of the Institution of Electrical Engineers, I was author of several international conference papers in computer control of industrial processes. Now I am a young OAP who writes. My other current interests include independent travel in Europe and Asia (with my wife and a rucksack), languages (both European and Asian), politics (as an observer), tech stocks, ball sports, ‘modern’ jazz, and photography.


Brian Corbett
62 Radyr Avenue, Swansea, SA3 5DT  



SALLY CLARK and SADDAM HUSSEIN


Last week we learnt an appeal court had quashed Sally Clark’s life sentence. That conviction was based largely on the huge improbability of two such infant deaths occurring by co-incidence of chance. But we now know it wasn’t merely chance, that part of the evidence was hidden. We could all sympathise with the human scale of an error so clearly etched on the face of the victim, and be thankful that at least we no longer have a death penalty.


At the time of the conviction it was reminiscent to me of the stratospheric pseudo scientific improbabilities cited by the authorities for the safety of nuclear power. They were issued at the time that undeclared accidents being hidden, at Windscale. With hindsight of the disasters at Three Mile Island and Chernobyl who would dare spin such figures now.


Yet the case against Iraq is also being spun on a hypothetical basis. Without a regime change Donald Rumsfeld tells us thousands, or tens of thousands, or hundreds of thousands, or maybe millions (of westerners) will die when their chemical and biological weapons get into the hands of terrorists. Precious little hard evidence of possession or development of weapons is presented. (Note too how the nuclear threat and ‘smoking gun’ have so suddenly have disappeared from our pages). There is however the knowledge that the US once supplied anthrax to its then ally. No evidence yet of a link between the secular state of Iraq and fundamentalist Muslims. But, worryingly for those who respect the truth, it’s becoming an imperative to find one, and there’s the plausibility that we can force them to act simultaneously, and so gain apparent justification after the event. No attempt is made to balance the argument by the certainty of casualties (mostly Iraqi) in a war, the possibility that it will escalate far outside Iraq’s borders, or by the probability that such a course will harden the resentment felt by the have-nots of this world, underline the case for pursuing political aims by violence, and fuel terrorism against the west for another generation.


An unstoppable inertia is gathering behind the massive preparations for an early pre-emptive war. The loss of face alone in pulling back and handing a propaganda scoop of our own making to Saddam Hussein is becoming enormous, the stock market flounders whilst this uncertainty exists and the real economy may not be too far behind, the military are on alert. It’s time for our government to reason and choose. I am against President Bush.



BRIAN CORBETT                            31 January 2003



Brian, thanks, but I'm afraid this doesn't really make it for T2. I feel
trying to combine two such diverse subjects simply doesn't work as a piece.
regards
Alan      Editor of T2 (Times 2)


Last of many pieces discussed with him